Free NBA Picks for October 31st, 2008
October 31, 2008
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Here are some free picks for Friday:
John Martin’s Friday NBA Free Play:
1 Unit on Toronto Raptors -7.5
The first night of the Chris Bosh-Jermaine O’Neal experiment worked to perfection for Toronto, which got a combined 44 points and 19 rebounds from its high-priced frontcourt en route to a 95-84 victory against the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday. The Golden State Warriors will have no answer for these two studs inside tonight. The Warriors got worse in the off-season by trading away Baron Davis. They also are playing without Monta Ellis right now, who is clearly their best scorer, as Ellis is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. The Raptors have a great compliment of guards who can knock down the 3-point shot to take pressure off Bosh and O’Neal on the inside. This is a great match-up for the Raptors as they look to start the season 2-0 with a blowout win tonight. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings here. Cash in with the Raptors as the home favorite.
Jack Jones Friday Free NBA Pick:
Miami was in a shootout with New York for their opener and the Kings did a pretty good job of putting up points against Minnesota in their first game as well. I see that trend continuing on Friday night as the Kings have gone OVER in 23 of 32 after a loss by six or less the last three years. Plus Sacramento is 41-26 for the OVER as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Black Widow’s NBA Bet is on: Boston Celtics -8.5
Boston has been a covering machine when playing the Bulls and we look for that to continue tonight as just a single-digit favorite. Boston went 4-0 SU & ATS in four meetings with the Bulls last season. The won each meeting by at least 11 points apiece. Boston beat Chicago by 23 & 25 points in their two home meetings with the Bulls, respectively. The Celtics have the answer for Chicago as the Bulls settle for way too many jump shots to be able to beat Boston. That won?t change even with Derrick Rose manning the point in Chicago now. Chicago is just 3-16 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Beating the Milwaukee Bucks at home does not mean the Bulls are improved at all this season. Their true colors will show against Boston Friday. Take the Celtics and lay the points.
Free NBA Picks for October 30th
October 30, 2008
Only three games going in the NBA on Thursday night but we have you covered here at free NBA picks. Take a look at the free plays below and good luck on whoever you decide to take tonight. Remember that if you want the best chance of beating the point spreads our premium picks offered by the top handicappers in the world can be had right here. They will make you money over the long haul!
Jeff Alexander has his 1 Unit FREE PLAY on Hornets/Suns OVER 195.5
I like both teams to go over the century mark tonight to beat this number. Both the Hornets and the Suns scored better than 100 points last night with relative ease. The average total score between these two teams over the last 3 games they have played is 238.7 ppg. It likely doesn’t get that high tonight, but when you have Steve Nash and Chris Paul running their respective teams, there is not much early season lag as these guys know how to run the offense and how to get the ball in the hands of their teammates in a position to score. The Over is 18-8 in Suns last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Over.
Jimmy Boyd has a 1 Unit FREE PLAY on Rockets/Mavs UNDER 191
Any game that Houston is involved in can be an opportunity to cash with the under and that’s what we’ll look to do here. Houston is 51-38 UNDER in all games over the last 2 seasons. Houston plays halfcourt basketball the entire game and tries to wear its opponents down with solid defense at the other end. This style of play has proven to be very conducive of unders situations. Last night we saw typical Houston basketball as the Rockets won 82-71 and the final score came in 38.5 points under the number. This will be the first time on the floor for Dallas in the regular season so you will see some rust in the early going offensively. These factors cater to an Unders spot here. Take the UNDER.
ATS Lock Club
3 units N.O./Phoenix Over 197
ATS Financial Package
3 units Dallas Mavs
Jimmy Moore Guaranteed Selections
7* Houston / Dallas UNDER 192.5
Indian Cowboy
Cavs / Bobcats Under 184 (POD)
NBA Odds, Picks, & Predictions for October 29th, 2008
October 29, 2008
A big slate of games comes our way on October, 29th, 2008. Some of the big games are the Suns/Spurs and the Lakers/Clippers. The Lakers are in a tough spot going back-to-back to start the season, but after last night’s blowout of the Blazers they don’t look like they are going to have much of a problem. Take a look at all of the NBA odds listed below, and we will include some free picks from our top handicappers below that.
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TORONTO +5-110 o190-110 +175
PHILADELPHIA -5-110 u190-110 -205
ATLANTA +8-110 o202½-110 +315
ORLANDO -8-110 u202½-110 -375
NEW JERSEY +6-110 o192½-110 +220
WASHINGTON -6-110 u192½-110 -260
MIAMI +2½-110 o207½-110 +120
NEW YORK -2½-110 u207½-110 -140
INDIANA +10½-110 o187½-110 +550
DETROIT -10½-110 u187½-110 -700
MILWAUKEE +3-110 o198-110 +130
OKLAHOMA CITY -3-110 u198-110 -150
SACRAMENTO +5½-110 o203-110 +205
MINNESOTA -5½-110 u203-110 -245
PHOENIX +2-110 o187-110 +110
SAN ANTONIO -2-110 u187-110 -130
MEMPHIS +11-110 o190½-110 +650
HOUSTON -11-110 u190½-110 -900
DENVER +7½-110 o210½-110 +285
UTAH -7½-110 u210½-110 -335
NEW ORLEANS -6-110 o207-110 -250
GOLDEN STATE +6-110 u207-110 +210
LA LAKERS -9½-110 o201½-110 -560
LA CLIPPERS +9½-110 u201½-110 +460
Jeff Alexander has a 1 Unit FREE PLAY on Detroit Pistons -10
Detroit is 31-18 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and 22-9 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings which means the Pacers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Indiana has also been terrible against the NBA Central. The Pacers are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Central Division. The Pistons will look like they haven’t missed a beat tonight as they return the same nucleus of All-Star players who have been playing with one another for the better part of the decade. Coming off an offseason overhaul, it’s going to take the Pacers time to gel. Lay the number.
Dave Price has a 1 Unit FREE PLAY on New Orleans Hornets -5.5
Without Baron Davis on the roster and with Monte Ellis out for at least 30 games, the Warriors are going to have a tough go of it early in the season. We expect to see the same defensively-challenged Warriors team tonight (yielded a league-worst 108.8 ppg). With no one capable of sticking Chris Paul, he’ll be in the lane all night long penetrating and dishing to his bigs and his shooters. Bet the Hornets tonight.
Jimmy Boyd’s 1 Unit FREE PLAY on Atlanta Hawks +8
I like Atlanta to take Orlando right down to the wire in this Southeast Division battle between playoff teams. Odds makers are treating the Hawks like the same old team which used to get beat up on here when in reality they have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams SU and ATS. In fact, the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Orlando. With point guard Mike Bibby having had the offseason to really connect with his new team on and off the court, the Hawks are going to be more on the same page this season. With Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford alongside him, it looks like Atlanta will be right back in the playoffs. The Hawks will show the Magic that they are here to stay tonight.
NBA Odds, Predictions & Free Picks for 10/28
October 28, 2008
There are three games on tap for tonight, Cleveland/Boston and Portland/LA are both on TNT so you’ll have something to watch if you plan on betting the games. If you want some additional free NBA picks we have plenty of those from our top handicappers. If you want a better chance of beating the NBA odds then take a look at signing up for the premium expert NBA picks.
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Cleveland Cavs +6
Boston Celtics -6
Total Set at 179
Predictions Score: Celtics 93, Cavs 87
Milwaukee Bucks +6.5
Chicago Bulls -6.5
Total set at 194
Prediction Score: Bulls 100, Bucks 94
Portland Blazers +7.5
LA Lakers -7.5
Total Set at 194
Predicted Score: Lakers 101, Blazers 93
Free Picks:
Doc’s Sports says to take Portland/LA Lakers UNDER 195 ½ (10:30 PM EST, Tuesday) One thing that not a lot of people realize about the Lakers is that they actually started playing pretty decent defense down the stretch of the NBA season. Everyone thinks of this as an offense-only team but they have one of the best defensive players in the league in Kobe Bryant and they have emphasized defense even more in the offseason, evidently realizing that strong defensive clubs are the ones hoisting the NBA Trophy at the end of the Finals. Portland’s M.O. last season was that they were very solid on defense and not too flashy on offense and we expect them to continue to be a solid under play this season.
Jimmy Boyd’s free pick is on LA Lakers -7.5
The Lakers will waste no time washing the sour taste of a NBA Finals defeat out of their mouth tonight. While Portland gets to have Greg Oden on the court this season, he will be neutralized tonight by the twin towers of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. And then there’s Kobe Bryant, who the Blazers will have no answer for tonight. Portland scored just 92.9 points per game on the road last season while LA averaged 109.2 at home. The Blazers don’t have the explosiveness to stick with LA tonight. Lay the points.
2006 NBA Playoffs Betting Picks
October 28, 2008
The 2005-2006 Pistons are on their way to proving there is a difference between being a good team to bet on in the regular season and a good team for your NBA playoffs betting picks. As they drop both games in Miami and fall into a 3-1 series deficit, the overwhelming favorites to repeat in the Eastern Conference could be on their way out.
Why?
As crazy as this sounds, they might be too team oriented. The same thing that propelled them to greatness in the regular season could be the thing that’s holding them back in the playoffs. What are they missing? If you look at every Championship team, they have that go-to guy who puts their team on their back in the clutch.
This go-to guy demands so much attention that defensive game plans are built around stopping this one player, which leaves big holes for the other players to step up.
Why did Cleveland nearly beat Detroit, despite being an inferior team? Lebron James. There was no secret as to where the ball was going to be in Cleveland’s offense and now, in the Miami series, it’s Lebron’s buddy, Dwayne Wade, taking over in key situations. Even with the great “teams” of the past, there was no discrepancy as to which player would take the shots to finish off an opponent, or when they got behind, or in a close game down the stretch.
The 1982-84 Celtics are known as one of the great “teams”. They started, Parish, Bird, Maxwell, Johnson, and Henderson and brought McHale off the bench, but there was no question that Larry Bird would take or create every big shot.
NBA Picks
Chauncey Billups appears to be the closest thing the Pistons have to a clutch player, finishing 5th in the MVP balloting this season. However, he does not go to the basket well, and defenders can crowd him knowing that he’s going to settle for jumpers. It’s plain to see that Lebron and Wade are far superior as go-to type players so early in their careers and their ability to go to the hole allows them to get better opportunities as defenders have to respect their ability to drive. When looking at the Pistons before making your NBA picks, some might say that Rip Hamilton should be taking the big shots. The problem is, he can’t create any shots for himself. He is a catch and shoot player who depends on his teammates to free him with screens. If you want to know the truth, it’s Tayshaun Prince who has the makings of being the go-to guy this Pistons team desperately needs. He usually poses matchup problems for teams because if you guard him small to take away his quickness, he can post you and use his size and length, but if you try to guard him with a bigger player, he’ll blow right by you.
I believe this Pistons team is going to struggle in the postseason unless they can foster Prince into this role.
You might be thinking isn’t this the same Pistons team who won the Championship a couple years ago. Yes it is, however, the Eastern Conference was as weak as it’s ever been and the Lakers were a soap opera otherwise they would have dismantled them. Lebron James, and Dwayne Wade were rookies then, and now they are emerging as the best players in the NBA, really elevating the level of play in the Eastern Conference as well as the NBA as a whole.
As more and more teams are improving in the NBA, all I can say is, the Pistons better find a go-to guy or they’ll be going home earlier and earlier.
2006 NBA Finals Game 4 Predictions
October 28, 2008
With three games gone in the NBA Championship series, there have been more than a few surprises. Even casual NBA followers were surprised at how low scoring the first two games were. Game 1 had a total of 170 points scored (with a total of 192.5), whereas Game 2 had 183 points scored (with the
total at 188). Only Game 3 went over as 194 points were scored while the total closed at 189.5.
While many can set a basketball total line based on “feel”, the deadliest totals players at Pinnacle Sportsbook combine statistical analysis with a subjective understanding of the teams. If you want to set a baseline, you should begin analysis by looking at five statistics: each team’s average points scored, average points allowed by each team, and the league scoring average.
During the regular season, Dallas scored an average of 99.1 points per game while allowing 93.1 points per game. Miami scored 99.9 points per game and allowed 96. An inexperienced bettor might use just those four numbers and assume their average (96.8 per team, or 193.7 per game) will carry forward. The problem with using straight averages is that it dilutes the affects of high or low statistics.
If team “A” scores five points more than the league average, and this team plays a team with an average defense, you’d expect it to score five points more than average. If you take a straight average of these two statistics, you would predict team “A” to only score 2.5 points better than average, which is the wrong way to go about things.
A better way to set a baseline for a total is to compare a team’s statistics to the league average. For example, Dallas’s average of 99.1 points per game was 1.9 higher than the league average. The Mavericks’ defense (93.1 compared to NBA average of 97.2) was 4.1 lower than the NBA average. Miami scored 2.7 more per game (99.9 versus NBA average 97.2), while allowing 1.2 less (96 versus NBA avg. 97.2).
You now have four “totals adjusters”: Dallas has +1.9 (offense) and -4.1 (defense); Miami has +2.7 (offense) and -1.2 (defense). Add them all up, and your “team total adjustment” is (1.9-4.1+2.7-1.2) = -0.7. Add this to the NBA game average (97.2 * 2), and you get a “baseline total” of 193.7 (which is close to the game 1 total of 192.5). This method is particularly accurate when you have two influential statistics that would move the line in the same direction – e.g. a team with a strong defense versus a weak offense.
The baseline gives a good general measure of a match-up, but coaching decisions can cause some significant changes. One of the biggest factors is the pace of a game. In general, the superior team will benefit from a faster pace. The more possessions in a game, the more likely the law of large numbers will win out. Most games have about 85-95 possessions per team. If you look at a box score, the number of possessions = field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.4 * free throw attempts. This same formula can be used to evaluate the normal “pace” of a team by reviewing its season-long statistics.
Plugging in the regular season stats and using the pace formula, will show that Dallas averages 90 possessions per game, while Miami averages 93 possessions. With the first two games of the series going under, you might have examined their pace. Did a coaching strategy slow the game down?
Using the possessions formula, Game 1 offered 89 possessions each, while Game 2 offered 90 each. This pace was fairly typical of these teams. To understand why these games went under (especially Game 1, which went under by 22½ points), look at another statistic: offensive efficiency.
Offensive efficiency is simply the average number of points scored by a team per 100 possessions. In the regular season, Dallas scored 99.1 points on 90 possessions per game for an offensive rating of 110. Miami allowed 93 points on 93 possessions, for a defensive rating of 100. One should be cautious using season averages because a lineup change or coaching philosophy can drastically change a team’s performance. Therefore, using stats from the last 10 games rather than the whole season may be better.
In Game 1, Dallas scored 90 points on 90 possessions, which was about five points less than one would guess looking at the teams’ ratings. Similarly, Miami only scored 80 points in 90 possessions, whereas the statistics of the two teams predict about 92.5 points. In Game 2, both teams again scored slightly less than their offensive efficiencies would suggest.
When a game result is a far call from what’s expected, the box-score can tell a lot. The first thing to check (both after an unusual result and before doing analysis) are player injuries. A starter getting a lot fewer minutes than normal in a competitive game is one indicator. Maybe the game played at a different pace than expected. Neither of these factors were the main cause in Game 1 – just poor shooting. If there’s no fundamental change in team tactics, shooting will revert to the mean (as it did in Game 2).
There is another factor to consider. Everyone has seen the frantic pace of the last minute of a close game. In Game 6 of the Dallas-Phoenix series, there were 10 possessions in the last 60 seconds as Phoenix pressed to equalize. In the first two Miami-Dallas games, there were only four possessions in the last minute of each blowout-game. It was a different story in Game 3 where there was no more than a two point difference between the teams at any stage during the last minute of the game. When handicapping the total, consider the spread as well. The closer the match, the more likely a frantic final minute or overtime is likely to occur.
Defense and the NBA Playoffs
October 28, 2008
NBA Playoffs are often about defense, and the Pistons/Heat series has been a textbook example. A strangling defense has been the norm, especially from Pat Riley and the Miami Heat. Detroit averaged 96 ppg this season, yet in this series they’ve scored 86, 92, 83, 78 and 91 points. In fact, all five games have gone under the total, a key thing to remember for your NBA Picks this season.
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Miami’s defense has been exceptional. In Game 3, Detroit shot 42% and got beat on the boards 40-27. In Game 4 Detroit shot 39% and in Game 5 they shot 42.9%, and won! This is common this time of year as the games mean so much that teams and coaches stress the importance of all-out defense on nearly every possession.
If you believe the conspiracy theorists, the NBA has changed the rules since 2004 to try to get more offense going. That happened after the Pistons and their slow-down defense won the title in 2004. David Stern stopped all the bumping and grabbing on and off the ball. He opened the floor up for quick players such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. High scoring means more fan interest and higher TV ratings. The game was getting a bit stagnant. And what one event stood out more than any other this season? Probably Kobe Bryant’s 81-point game.
In doing this, he was taking away a bit of an edge that teams like the Pistons and Spurs had: being physical on defense. Stern said this week, “I think it is fair to say that we went through a period where it became fashionable to get a piece of a player in the lane, and if you didn’t stop him, you at least slowed him up. We made a decision to say we wanted to try it the other way. I think our fans and our players are responding to that. It’s giving people a chance to see how talented our players really are. We are pretty excited about that.”
So the physical and team-oriented Spurs are already out of the playoffs, upended by Dallas, while the Pistons might not be far behind. Still, loads of defense can be found in the current series. A key to this series has been Tayshaun Prince. He hurt Miami in Game 2, with 24 points as Detroit won 92-88. Prince was 10-of-20 shooting, after which Riley pointed out how Prince had hurt them and he needed to find a way to prevent Prince from getting open and to attack him as he drove the lane.
They did. In Game 3 Prince was 1-of-7 shooting in 46 minutes, and in Game 4 Prince was 6-of-16 shooting for just 15 points. Miami won both to take a 3-1 series lead. In Game 5, Prince was 11-of-17 shooting for a team high 29 points. He has really blossomed as a terrific all-around player, and as he has gone in this series, so have the Pistons.
As you watch the Heat and Pistons this weekend, note that in the last 13 meetings between these teams, the home team is 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS. That’s a key obstacle the Pistons are going to have to overcome Friday in Miami. But they’ve done it before! Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.
2006 NBA Finals Picks & Odds
October 28, 2008
The NBA Finals are set between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat. Neither one of these teams have ever reached the NBA Finals before now and they had to get past some major hurdles to do so. The Mavericks were finally able to get past in state and division rival San Antonio, who has been the best in the west for quite some time, with a new focus on defense by coach of the year Avery Johnson and dominant performances by Dirk Nowitzky. And Miami was able to destroy the Pistons in the conference finals with a rejuvenated Shaquille O’Neal, one young star, and veteran role players who at one time basked in the spotlight on their respective teams. As the finals in each conference were unfolding, I was getting a sense that this is the matchup America wanted to see, and now we’ll be able to sit back and enjoy what should be a great series.
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How were Dallas and Miami able to get past their respective adversaries in such a short amount of time? My best answer is Cuban and Riley. Cuban has arguably done more for his team than any owner is history and Riley made the ultimate move of instating himself as coach to corral the players he brought it. Both refused to settle, sought change, and it has paid off. The icing on the cake for Cuban had to be defeating two-time MVP Steve Nash in the conference finals. He has been criticized for not matching Phoenix’s offer in light of Nash’s stunning success, but he can be confident now that he made the right move. Many felt it would be impossible for Riley to make roll players out of so many guys who were use to handling the ball the majority of the time with their former teams. But Williams and Payton are a great one-two punch at the point, Walker is the third scorer this team was missing, and Posey provides a great defender with the ability to shoot the three and rebound. Good teams start in the front office at the top of the ladder, and that is why it is no surprise that the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks have emerged into the elite teams in their respective conferences this season with leaders like Cuban and Riley who appear to be more about winning than dollar signs.
What should we expect in the series?
Other than us dominating the books with our NBA picks, expect to see lots of defense, which should make for some low scoring games. Miami didn’t look like they would be able to stop anyone in the opening round of the playoffs when the Bulls were abusing them with the pick and roll. Since then they have defended beautifully with virtually no lapses in the New Jersey series and they took things up another notch against Detroit. It’s no secret that much of the Mavericks’ success stems from Avery Johnson changing the focus of this team to defense from their previously offensive mentality. Teams used to pick on Dirk in the playoffs and now he’s blocking and altering shots on and off the ball as well as gobbling up every rebound around the basket. I do think that if Dallas can involve Shaquille O’Neal in screen and rolls, they will see some success. With Devin Harris handling the ball, he’ll be able to get clear to the basket or draw easy fouls on Shaq as his screen hedges have been sloppy and sometimes he doesn’t even show. Harris really proved his quickness in the San Antonio series when he was able to get free from Tony Parker, who many say is the quickest player in the game. When Jason Terry is in the game running the pick and roll, Miami will have to go over top of the screen to keep him from knocking down easy jumpers, but he still has the quickness to get to the basket. On the other side of the coin, Miami will need to get the ball into Shaq as Dallas doesn’t have the big bodies down low to stop him. If Ben Wallace couldn’t be effective against Shaq, there’s no way that Dampier and Diop will be able to stop the “best 34 year old ever” as Shaq so-called himself in a recent interview.
Both teams are predominantly half court teams, but Jason Williams will push the ball up for easy ones for the Heat and Devin Harris works in much the same way for the Mavs. The series could be decided by which team can get the most easy transition buckets outside of who makes there free throws. Look for both Harris and Williams to be pivotal players.
I should probably say a word about Nowitzky and Wade since they are the poster boys for their franchises. They will do their thing as stars do and as they have throughout the playoffs. I’m sure Dallas will look to trap Wade and double team him when he turns his back to the basket as the Pistons did, which forced him into turnover problems. Miami is going to have some problems with Nowitzky as he is maybe the most efficient player in the game. He is able to kill teams at the foul line and his improved ability to set up his teammates will make Miami think twice about double teaming him, but ultimately they will have no choice.
On paper, this looks like a seven game series all the way, and I hope it is. It’s excellent for the league to have some new blood at the top of the totem pole, and I’m looking forward to seeing if Shaq can get his fourth, adding to his legacy, or if Dirk will get his first, solidifying himself as an all-time great in the NBA.
2006 NBA Finals Predictions
October 28, 2008
To run, or not to run? That is the big question for the NBA Finals as Miami battles Dallas. Actually the key will be who controls the tempo? Detroit had an explosive offense all season, then blew away the Cavaliers in their first two playoff games. Suddenly, the Cavs completely slowed down the pace, controlling the tempo, and winning 3 in a row over the stunned Pistons. The Heat also controlled the pace in slowing down Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals.A younger and deep Dallas lineup no doubt will want to run while Miami will try and slow the tempo. Dallas has been unique and unpredictable in the postseason with respect to tempo. Against San Antonio, the Mavs played the Spurs’ pace in Game 1, a slow, methodical tempo won by San Antonio 87-85. However, the Mavs scrapped that style and went up tempo the rest of the series, winning 3 in a row for those taking them with their NBA picks, in fact, by running.
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Dallas continued to play up tempo in Game 1 against Phoenix, but lost at home 121-118. So what did Dallas do? Scrapped that plan and played defense the next five games, winning four of them. After scoring 121 in that first game, the Suns scored 98, 88, 106, 101 and 93 the rest of the series. After missing most of Game 1 against Phoenix, Josh Howard averaged 22 points and 10 rebounds in the final five games. The Mavs went 4-1 with him.
So what does Dallas and Miami do now? Game 1 may have told us a lot. It makes sense for Dallas to run, not only because they are younger, but because Miami is a terrific high percentage shooting team, almost solely from the low post, along with Dwyane Wade’s drives. Dallas is less likely to keep Miami from shooting well (just ask the Pistons, who had no answer for Shaq or Wade). But a halfcourt pace favors the Heat. After all, Shaq is 34-years old and Alonzo Mourning is a 36-year-old veteran. And we saw a low-scoring 90-80 affair in Game 1, and perhaps, a bit surprisingly, a Dallas victory.
For Dallas to continue to be successful against the Heat, that could mean turning often to a group that includes Dirk Nowitzki in the middle, forcing O’Neal to defend a fellow seven-footer who has the quickness and shooting prowess of a guard. Dwyane Wade said defending the Mavericks in that scenario would become the ultimate team challenge. On the other side of the ledger, Dallas will have to decide whether or not to double team O’Neal. In the regular season, the Suns had success double-teaming Shaq with smaller players at all times and daring the Heat to beat them with ball movement. Miami has been much better in the postseason against that type of defense.
Oddly, one game really turned around Miami’s season: a 112-76 loss to the Mavericks. Afterwards, Gary Payton and Udonis Haslem addressed the Heat players. “There’s nothing worse than being out on the court knowing that your teammates don’t trust you and you don’t trust them,” Haslem said this week. “I don’t think we had 100 percent trust for one another.”
Three days later, they turned things around, as the Heat rallied from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit at home to beat the Pistons. Wade scored the Heat’s final 17 points in that game, and it started a stretch in which the Heat won 15 of 16 games. So now Miami comes full circle, in a sense: To thank the Mavericks for helping to turn things around? Or, to get beat again by the better, younger team? Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.